中国农业：从长计议国人饮食之变（英文版）-Goldman Sachs ：China Agriculture -142页

 We expect the further decline in Chinese pork production, partly offset by protein substitution, and extended supply shortages in pork and global animal proteins. In an optimistic case where the sow herd stabilizes at present, we estimate that supply shortages of animal meat in China would be about 7.3mnt in 2019E, and 12.3mnt in 2020E, followed by 9.8mnt in 2021E, or 11%, 19%, and 15% of the domestic market, respectively. Should the sow herd further decline for another half a year (bear case), we would expect the supply defificit to reach 11%, 31%, and 36% of the domestic market, in 2019E-2021E, respectively. This would be equal to 3-5% of the global market in the optimistic case, or 3-8% in the bear case. From a global supply perspective, the major countries for animal protein would be the US, Brazil, and the EU, in addition to China. The average growth rates in the past 10 years were 0.9-1.4% for pork, 2-3% for chicken, and 0-1% for beef. We expect limited supply responses from ex-China supplies in pork and beef in 2019 given the time it takes to effectively increase supply (10 months for pork and >2 years for beef). Feedback from our US team suggests a limited response on chicken given poor profifitability, but potentially a larger supply response in chicken production in Brazil (please see African Swine Fever upending protein markets).

According to World Organization for Animal Health (OIE), African swine fever (ASF) is a highly contagious haemorrhagic viral disease of domestic and wild pigs, which is responsible for serious economic and production losses. It is caused by a large DNA virus of the Asfarviridae family, which also infects ticks of the genus Ornithodoros. Disease transmission can be through direct contact with infected domestic or wild pigs; indirect contact, through ingestion of contaminated material (e.g. food waste, feed, or garbage); contaminated fomites, or biological vectors (soft ticks of the genus Ornithodoros). Acute forms of ASF are high fever, depression, anorexia and loss of appetite, haemorrhages in the skin, abortion in pregnant sows, cyanosis, vomiting, diarrhoea and death within 6-13 days (or up to 20 days). Mortality rates may be as high as 100%. According to OIE, ASF is not a risk to human health. Currently there is no approved vaccine for ASF, based on OIE. However, ASF can be reasonably contained if pig production can be strictly segregated from external contact, with strict sterilization of feed and personnel, based on OIE.